Indonesia is poised to achieve rice self-sufficiency and potentially become a net exporter for the first time in decades, according to ProSpace Indonesia’s latest agricultural production forecast. Rice production is projected to reach 49.7 million tonnes for the 2025 harvest year, an 8.2% increase over 2024 levels.
The production surge stems from a combination of improved irrigation infrastructure, higher-yielding varietals, and favorable weather conditions across key growing regions. Government programs providing subsidized fertilizer and technical assistance have contributed to productivity gains among smallholder farmers, who account for 89% of rice cultivation.
“After years of being a net importer, Indonesia has an opportunity to reposition itself in regional rice markets,” explains Hadi Wijaya, Food Security Analyst at ProSpace. “Surplus production could enable exports of up to 1.2 million tonnes, primarily to neighboring ASEAN countries and the Middle East.”
Domestic rice prices have stabilized at Rp11,200 per kilogram, providing reasonable returns for farmers while maintaining affordability for consumers. National rice reserves currently stand at 2.7 million tonnes, exceeding the government’s minimum threshold by 35%.
Challenges remain in post-harvest handling, with losses estimated at 15-20% due to inadequate drying and storage facilities. Public-private partnerships are addressing these gaps through investments in modern rice processing centers across major production zones.
For food security analysis: Phone: +62 21 5799 8989 Email: info@prospaceindonesia.com Follow @prospace.indonesia on Instagram for updates
